A Nomogram Model to Predict Malignant Cerebral Edema in Ischemic Stroke Patients Treated with Endovascular Thrombectomy: An Observational Study

Purpose: Malignant cerebral edema (MCE) in patients undergoing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is not uncommon and can reduce the benefit of EVT. We aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the risk of MCE in ischemic stroke patients after EVT.

Patients And Methods: We retrospectively collected patients treated with EVT caused by anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke at two comprehensive stroke centers. MCE was defined as midline shift >5 mm at the septum pellucidum or pineal gland with obliteration of the basal cisterns or the need for early decompressive hemicraniectomy. A multivariate logistic model was utilized to construct the best-fit nomogram model. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: A total of 370 patients (mean age, 67.2±11.9 years; male, 56.8%) were enrolled in the final analysis. Among them, 71 (19.2%) patients experienced MCE after EVT treatment. After adjustment for potential confounders, age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, collateral circulation, fast blood glucose level and recanalization were independent predictors of MCE and were incorporated into the nomogram. The AUC-ROC value of the nomogram was 0.805 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.860). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the nomogram (P = 0.681).

Conclusion: The nomogram composed of age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, blood glucose level, collateral circulation and recanalization may predict the probability of MCE in anterior circulation large vessel occlusion stroke patients treated with EVT.