Nowcasting Avalanches As Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

Overview

Journal Entropy (Basel)

Publisher MDPI

Date 2020 Dec 8

PMID 33286996

Citations 5

Authors

Jennifer Perez-Oregon

Fernando Angulo-Brown

Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.

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