High Plasma C-terminal FGF-23 Levels Predict Poor Outcomes in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease Superimposed with Acute Kidney Injury

Background: Elevated plasma C-terminal fibroblast growth factor-23 (cFGF-23) levels are associated with higher mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI). Our study explored the outcome forecasting accuracy of cFGF-23 in critically ill patients with CKD superimposed with AKI (ACKD).

Methods: Urine and plasma biomarkers from 149 CKD patients superimposed with AKI before dialysis were checked in this multicenter prospective observational cohort study. Endpoints were 90-day mortality and 90 days free from dialysis after hospital discharge. Associations with study endpoints were assessed using hierarchical clustering analysis, the generalized additive model, the Cox proportional hazard model, competing risk analysis, and discrimination evaluation.

Results: Over a median follow up of 40 days, 67 (45.0%) patients died before the 90th day after hospital discharge and 39 (26.2%) progressed to kidney failure with replacement therapy (KFRT). Hierarchical clustering analysis demonstrated that cFGF-23 levels had better predictive ability for 90-day mortality than did other biomarkers. Higher serum cFGF-23 levels were independently associated with greater risk for 90-day mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 2.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-4.1;  < 0.001]. Moreover, adding plasma cFGF-23 to the Demirjian AKI risk score model substantially improved risk prediction for 90-day mortality than the Demirjian model alone (integrated discrimination improvement: 0.06;  < 0.05; 95% CI 0.02-0.10). The low plasma cFGF-23 group was predicted having more weaning from dialysis in surviving patients (HR = 0.53, 95% CI, 0.29-0.95,  = 0.05).

Conclusions: In patients with ACKD, plasma cFGF-23 levels are an independent risk factor to forecast 90-day mortality and 90-day progression to KFRT. In combination with the clinical risk score, plasma cFGF-23 levels could substantially improve mortality risk prediction.