Analyzing the Impact of the Media Campaign and Rapid Testing for COVID-19 As an Optimal Control Problem in East Java, Indonesia

Overview

Journal Chaos Solitons Fractals

Date 2020 Oct 21

PMID 33082625

Citations 16

Authors

Dipo Aldila

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Without any vaccine or medical intervention to cure the infected individual from COVID-19, the non-pharmaceutical intervention become the most reasonable intervention against the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we proposed a deterministic model governed by a system of nonlinear differential equations which consider the intervention of media campaign to increase human awareness, and rapid testing to track the undetected cases in the field. Analysis of the autonomous model shows the existence of transcritical bifurcation at a basic reproduction number equal to one. We estimate our parameter using the incidence data from East Java, Indonesia. Using these parameters, we analyze the sensitivity of the parameters in determining the size of the basic reproduction number. An optimal control problem which transforms media campaign and rapid testing as a time-dependent control was conducted also in this article. Cost-effectiveness analysis using the Infection averted ratio (IAR) and the Average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) conducted to analyze the best strategies to eradicate COVID-19 spread. We observe that the combination of the media campaign and rapid testing as time-dependent interventions reduces the number of an infected individual significantly and also minimizes the economic burden due to these strategies in East Java.

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