Improvements and Inter-laboratory Implementation and Optimization of Blood-based Single-locus Age Prediction Models Using DNA Methylation of the ELOVL2 Promoter

Several blood-based age prediction models have been developed using less than a dozen to more than a hundred DNA methylation biomarkers. Only one model (Z-P1) based on pyrosequencing has been developed using DNA methylation of a single locus located in the ELOVL2 promoter, which is considered as one of the best age-prediction biomarker. Although multi-locus models generally present better performances compared to the single-locus model, they require more DNA and present more inter-laboratory variations impacting the predictions. Here we developed 17,018 single-locus age prediction models based on DNA methylation of the ELOVL2 promoter from pooled data of four different studies (training set of 1,028 individuals aged from 0 and 91 years) using six different statistical approaches and testing every combination of the 7 CpGs, aiming to improve the prediction performances and reduce the effects of inter-laboratory variations. Compared to Z-P1 model, three statistical models with the optimal combinations of CpGs presented improved performances (MAD of 4.41-4.77 in the testing set of 385 individuals) and no age-dependent bias. In an independent testing set of 100 individuals (19-65 years), we showed that the prediction accuracy could be further improved by using different CpG combinations and increasing the number of technical replicates (MAD of 4.17).