Forecasting the Incidence of Acute Haemorrhagic Conjunctivitis in Chongqing: a Time Series Analysis

Overview

Journal Epidemiol Infect

Publisher Cambridge University Press

Specialties Infectious Diseases
Public Health

Date 2020 Aug 19

PMID 32807257

Citations 9

Authors

Hongfang Qiu

Dewei Zeng

Jing Yi

Hua Zhu

Ling Hu

Dan Jing

Mengliang Ye

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is a highly contagious eye disease, the prediction of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis is very important to prevent and grasp its development trend. We use the exponential smoothing model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to analyse and predict. The monthly incidence data from 2004 to 2017 were used to fit two models, the actual incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in 2018 was used to validate the model. Finally, the prediction effect of exponential smoothing is best, the mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error were 0.0152 and 0.1871, respectively. In addition, the incidence of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Chongqing had a seasonal trend characteristic, with the peak period from June to September each year.

Citing Articles

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