Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Children with Neuroblastoma Based on SEER Database

Purpose: This study was performed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival in children with neuroblastoma.

Methods: The latest clinical data of neuroblastoma in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was extracted from 2000 to 2016. The cases included were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The survival curves were drawn with a Kaplan-Meier estimator to investigate the influences of certain single factors on overall survival. Also, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was applied to further select the prognostic variables for neuroblastoma. Additionally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram.

Results: In total, 1,262 patients were collected and 8 independent prognostic factors were achieved, including patients' age, sex, race, tumor grade, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, tumor site, and tumor size. Then we constructed a nomogram by using the data of the training cohort with 886 cases. Subsequently, the nomogram was validated internally and externally with 886 and 376 cases, respectively. The internal validation revealed that the area under the curves (AUC) of ROC curves of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival were 0.69, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively. Accordingly, the external validation also showed that the AUC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival were all ≥0.69. Both methods of validation demonstrated that the predictive calibration curves were consistent with standard curves.

Conclusion: The nomogram possess the potential to be a new tool in predicting the survival rate of neuroblastoma patients.