Association of Padua Prediction Score with In-hospital Prognosis in COVID-19 Patients

Background: Nearly 20% novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have abnormal coagulation function. Padua prediction score (PPS) is a validated tools for venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment. However, its clinical value in COVID-19 patients' evaluation was unclear.

Methods: We prospectively evaluated the VTE risk of COVID-19 patients using PPS. Demographic and clinical data were collected. Association of PPS with 28-day mortality was analyzed by multivariate logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis.

Results: Two hundred and seventy-four continuous patients were enrolled, with total mortality of 17.2%. Patients in high PPS group, with significantly abnormal coagulation, have a higher levels of interleukin 6 (25.27 vs. 2.55 pg/ml, P < 0.001), prophylactic anticoagulation rate (60.7% vs. 6.5%, P < 0.001) and mortality (40.5% vs. 5.9%, P < 0.001) when compared with that in low PPS group. Critical patients showed higher PPS (6 vs. 2 score, P < 0.001) than that in severe patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed the independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality included high PPS [odds ratio (OR): 7.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.08-16.01], increased interleukin-6 (OR: 11.79, 95% CI: 5.45-26.20) and elevated d-dimer (OR: 4.65, 95% CI: 1.15-12.15). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated patients with higher PPS had a significant survival disadvantage. Prophylactic anticoagulation in higher PPS patients shows a mild advantage of mortality but without statistical significance (37.1% vs. 45.7%, P = 0.42).

Conclusion: Higher PPS associated with in-hospital poor prognosis in COVID-19 patients. Prophylactic anticoagulation showed a mild advantage of mortality in COVID-19 patients with higher PPS, but it remain to need further investigation.