A Prognostic 11-DNA Methylation Signature for Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background: Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC), as the second frequent subtype of lung cancer, causes lots of mortalities primarily due to a lack of precise prognostic markers and timely treatment intervention. Previous studies have constructed several risk prognostic models based on DNA methylation sites in multiple tumors, whereas, DNA methylation signature of LUSC remains to be built, and its predictive value need to be evaluated.

Methods: The genome-wide DNA methylation data of LUSC samples was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset. Univariate Cox analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were implemented to identify DNA methylation sites related to overall survival of LUSC patients. Thus, we performed multivariate Cox regression to establish a DNA methylation signature. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to estimate the prognostic power of the signature. Comparison with other known prognostic biomarkers, our DNA methylation signature showed higher predictive specificity and sensitivity. In addition, multivariate Cox regression screened out independent prognostic factors and constructed a nomogram.

Results: Several statistical methods were performed to construct an 11-DNA methylation signature. LUSC patients were divided into low- and high-risk group based on risk score, and high-risk group had a shorter survival time. According to the results of K-M and ROC analyses, the 11-DNA methylation signature showed significant sensitivity and specificity in predicting the LUSC patients' overall survival. Finally, we integrated some independent prognostic factors (risk score, metastasis stage, and tobacco smoking history) to construct a nomogram, which has excellent prognostic power and may provide guidance for the therapeutic strategies.

Conclusions: We constructed the first risk prognosis model based on DNA methylation site in LUSC, which showed better predictive ability. In addition, a nomogram integrating the DNA methylation signature, metastasis stage, and tobacco smoking history was developed.