Novel Methodology to Investigate the Effect of Radiation Dose to Heart Substructures on Overall Survival

Purpose: For patients with lung cancer treated with radiation therapy, a dose to the heart is associated with excess mortality; however, it is often not feasible to spare the whole heart. Our aim is to define cardiac substructures and dose thresholds that optimally reduce early mortality.

Methods And Materials: Fourteen cardiac substructures were delineated on 5 template patients with representative anatomies. One thousand one hundred sixty-one patients with non-small cell lung cancer were registered nonrigidly to these 5 template anatomies, and their radiation therapy doses were mapped. Mean and maximum dose to each substructure were extracted, and the means were evaluated as input to prediction models. The cohort was bootstrapped into 2 variable reduction techniques: elastic net least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and the random survival forest model. Each method was optimized to extract variables contributing most to overall survival, and model coefficients were evaluated to select these substructures. The most important variables common to both models were selected and evaluated in multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models. A threshold dose was defined, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves plotted.

Results: Nine hundred seventy-eight patients remained after visual quality assurance of the registration. Ranking the model coefficients across the bootstraps selected the maximum dose to the right atrium, right coronary artery, and ascending aorta as the most important factors associated with survival. The maximum dose to the combined cardiac region showed significance in the multivariable model, a hazard ratio of 1.01/Gy, and P = .03 after accounting for tumor volume (P < .001), N stage (P < .01), and performance status (P = .01). The optimal threshold for the maximum dose, equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions, was 23 Gy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed a significant split (log-rank P = .008).

Conclusions: The maximum dose to the combined cardiac region encompassing the right atrium, right coronary artery, and ascending aorta was found to have the greatest effect on patient survival. A maximum equivalent dose in 2-Gy fractions of 23 Gy was identified for consideration as a dose limit in future studies.