Temporary Fertility Decline After Large Rubella Outbreak, Japan

Overview

Journal Emerg Infect Dis

Specialty Infectious Diseases

Date 2020 May 23

PMID 32441617

Citations 2

Authors

Kenji Mizumoto

Gerardo Chowell

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Japan experienced 2 large rubella epidemics in 2004 and 2012-2014. Because of suboptimal immunization levels, the country has been experiencing a third major outbreak during 2018-2020. We conducted time series analyses to evaluate the effect of the 2012-2014 nationwide rubella epidemic on prefecture-level natality in Japan. We identified a statistically significant decline in fertility rates associated with rubella epidemic activity and increased Google searches for the term "rubella." We noted that the timing of fertility declines in 2014 occurred 9-13 months after peak rubella incidence months in 2013 in 4 prefectures with the highest rubella incidence. Public health interventions should focus on enhancing vaccination campaigns against rubella, not only to protect pregnant women from infection but also to mitigate declines in population size and birth rates.

Citing Articles

Human fertility after a disaster: a systematic literature review.

Lee D, Batyra E, Castro A, Wilde J Proc Biol Sci. 2023; 290(1998):20230211.

PMID: 37161332 PMC: 10170212. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.0211.

Measles and Rubella during COVID-19 Pandemic: Future Challenges in Japan.

Shimizu K, Teshima A, Mase H Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020; 18(1).

PMID: 33374998 PMC: 7792618. DOI: 10.3390/ijerph18010009.

References

Sugishita Y, Shimatani N, Katow S, Takahashi T, Hori N . Epidemiological characteristics of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in the 2012-2013 epidemics in Tokyo, Japan. Jpn J Infect Dis. 2015; 68(2):159-65. DOI: 10.7883/yoken.JJID.2014.195. View

Kato T, Yorifuji T, Yamakawa M, Inoue S, Doi H, Eboshida A . Association of maternal age with child health: A Japanese longitudinal study. PLoS One. 2017; 12(2):e0172544. PMC: 5325269. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172544. View

Chandra S, Yu Y . Fertility Decline and the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Taiwan. Biodemography Soc Biol. 2015; 61(3):266-72. DOI: 10.1080/19485565.2015.1062718. View

Nishiura H, Kinoshita R, Miyamatsu Y, Mizumoto K . Investigating the immunizing effect of the rubella epidemic in Japan, 2012-14. Int J Infect Dis. 2015; 38:16-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2015.07.006. View

Cazelles B, Chavez M, Berteaux D, Menard F, Vik J, Jenouvrier S . Wavelet analysis of ecological time series. Oecologia. 2008; 156(2):287-304. DOI: 10.1007/s00442-008-0993-2. View

Diaz-Quijano F, Pelissari D, Porto Chiavegatto Filho A . Zika-Associated Microcephaly Epidemic and Birth Rate Reduction in Brazilian Cities. Am J Public Health. 2018; 108(4):514-516. PMC: 5844397. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304260. View

Suzuki K, Yamagata Z, Kawado M, Hashimoto S . Effects of the Great East Japan Earthquake on Secondary Sex Ratio and Perinatal Outcomes. J Epidemiol. 2015; 26(2):76-83. PMC: 4728118. DOI: 10.2188/jea.JE20150055. View

Diaz-Quijano F, Porto Chiavegatto Filho A . Reduction of the birth rate in São Paulo: a probable effect of the panic caused by the Zika-associated microcephaly epidemic. Ann Epidemiol. 2017; 27(9):616-617. DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.08.009. View

Minakami H, Kubo T, Unno N . Causes of a nationwide rubella outbreak in Japan, 2012-2013. J Infect. 2013; 68(1):99-101. DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2013.09.002. View

10.

Metcalf C, Walter K, Wesolowski A, Buckee C, Shevliakova E, Tatem A . Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead. Proc Biol Sci. 2017; 284(1860). PMC: 5563806. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0901. View

11.

Dahal S, Mizumoto K, Bolin B, Viboud C, Chowell G . Natality Decline and Spatial Variation in Excess Death Rates During the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in Arizona, United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2018; 187(12):2577-2584. PMC: 6269250. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy146. View

12.

Schmidt L, Sobotka T, Bentzen J, Nyboe Andersen A . Demographic and medical consequences of the postponement of parenthood. Hum Reprod Update. 2011; 18(1):29-43. DOI: 10.1093/humupd/dmr040. View

13.

Kinoshita R, Nishiura H . Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics. BMJ Open. 2016; 6(1):e009928. PMC: 4735166. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009928. View

14.

Chandra S, Christensen J, Mamelund S, Paneth N . Short-Term Birth Sequelae of the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic in the United States: State-Level Analysis. Am J Epidemiol. 2018; 187(12):2585-2595. PMC: 7314232. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwy153. View

15.

Hsieh T, Liou J, Hsu J, Lo L, Chen S, Hung T . Advanced maternal age and adverse perinatal outcomes in an Asian population. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol. 2009; 148(1):21-6. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejogrb.2009.08.022. View

16.

Carolan M, Frankowska D . Advanced maternal age and adverse perinatal outcome: a review of the evidence. Midwifery. 2010; 27(6):793-801. DOI: 10.1016/j.midw.2010.07.006. View

17.

Ujiie M, Nabae K, Shobayashi T . Rubella outbreak in Japan. Lancet. 2014; 383(9927):1460-1461. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60712-1. View

18.

. Nationwide rubella epidemic--Japan, 2013. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2013; 62(23):457-62. PMC: 4604843. View

19.

Fung I, Tse Z, Cheung C, Miu A, Fu K . Ebola and the social media. Lancet. 2015; 384(9961):2207. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62418-1. View

20.

Schuler-Faccini L, Ribeiro E, Feitosa I, Horovitz D, Cavalcanti D, Pessoa A . Possible Association Between Zika Virus Infection and Microcephaly - Brazil, 2015. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2016; 65(3):59-62. DOI: 10.15585/mmwr.mm6503e2. View