Widespread Loss of Caribbean Acroporid Corals Was Underway Before Coral Bleaching and Disease Outbreaks

The mass mortality of acroporid corals has transformed Caribbean reefs from coral- to macroalgal-dominated habitats since systematic monitoring began in the 1970s. Declines have been attributed to overfishing, pollution, sea urchin and coral disease, and climate change, but the mechanisms are unresolved due to the dearth of pre-1970s data. We used paleoecological, historical, and survey data to track presence and dominance throughout the Caribbean from the prehuman period to present. Declines in dominance from prehuman values first occurred in the 1950s for and the 1960s for , decades before outbreaks of acroporid disease or bleaching. We compared trends in dominance since 1950 to potential regional and local drivers. Human population negatively affected and consumption of fertilizer for agriculture positively affected dominance, the latter likely due to lower human presence in agricultural areas. The earlier, local roots of Caribbean declines highlight the urgency of mitigating local human impacts.