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Estimating Number of Cases and Spread of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Using Critical Care Admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Overview
Journal Euro Surveill
Specialty Infectious Diseases
Date 2020 May 14
PMID 32400358
Citations 20
Authors
Mark Jit
Thibaut Jombart
Emily S Nightingale
Akira Endo
Sam Abbott
W John Edmunds
Affiliations
Soon will be listed here.
Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000-173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220-319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000-797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

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