Mediation of the Associations of Physical Activity With Cardiovascular Events and Mortality by Diabetes in Older Mexican Americans

Low physical activity (PA) among older adults increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality through metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes. We aimed to elucidate the extent to which diabetes mediates the effect of nonoccupational PA levels on CVD and mortality among older Mexican Americans. This study included 1,676 adults from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (1998-2007). We employed Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate associations of PA level with all-cause mortality, fatal CVD, and nonfatal CVD events. Utilizing causal mediation analysis within a counterfactual framework, we decomposed the total effect of PA into natural indirect and direct effects. Over a median of 8 years of follow-up, low PA (<25th percentile) was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06, 1.75), fatal CVD (HR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.42, 2.97), and nonfatal CVD events (HR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.37) in comparison with high PA (>75th percentile). Diabetes mediated 11.0%, 7.4%, and 5.2% of the total effect of PA on all-cause mortality, fatal CVD, and nonfatal CVD events, respectively. Our findings indicate that public health interventions targeting diabetes prevention and management would be a worthwhile strategy for preventing CVD and mortality among older Mexican Americans with insufficient PA levels.