Trends and Predictions for Survival and Mortality in Individuals with Down Syndrome in Brazil: A 21-year Analysis

Background: Regional heterogeneities and sociodemographic characteristics affect mortality and population survival in Brazil. However, for individuals with Down syndrome (DS) this information remains unknown. In this study, we analysed survival and mortality rates among DS individuals in the five Brazilian geographic regions. In addition, we investigated whether there is an association between mortality and sociodemographic factors across administrative regions.

Methods: Data between 1996 and 2016, comprising 10 028 records of deaths of individuals with DS, were collected from database records of the Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System. Data on race/ethnicity, sex, age and years of schooling were defined for the association analyses. Survival data were analysed according to the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression model.

Results: The number of deaths among people with DS has increased in recent years. Children are more susceptible to death, especially in the first years of life. Individuals living in the northern region, Indigenous women and people with no years of schooling have higher mortality. In the Southeast and South region, for White and Yellow, survival is related to a higher level of education. Ethnic factors and years of schooling influence risk for mortality across the administrative regions.

Conclusions: These findings show that sociodemographic characteristics affect survival and are associated with the risk of mortality for people with DS. In addition, this suggests that differences in access to health services among Brazilian regions, especially in the first years of life, may affect the survival of individuals with DS.