Trends of Gallbladder Cancer Incidence, Mortality, and Diagnostic Approach in Urban Shanghai Between 1973 and 2009

Purpose: To describe and interpret secular time trends in gallbladder cancer (GBC) incidence, mortality, and diagnostic approach using 37 years of cancer registry data in urban Shanghai.

Methods: Data on registration of GBC in urban Shanghai during 1973 and 2009 were collected by the Shanghai Cancer Registry. To describe time trends and to identify specific time points when significant changes occurred, we used joinpoint regression analysis.

Results: The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence increased from 1.1/100,000 (1973-1975) to 2.9/100,000 (2006-2009) in men and from 1.7/100,000 (1973-1975) to 3.9/100,000 (2006-2009) in women. ASRs of incidence increased significantly with estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) of 2.8% in men and 2.5% in women. The mortality trends increased significantly, with EAPCs of 2.8% in men and 2.5% in women. The increasing incidence and mortality rates were primarily observed in men ⩾60 years of age and in women ⩾70 years of age. Notable downward trends in incidence and mortality were identified among women age 60-69 years over the last decade. The percentage of GBC diagnosed by pathology increased steadily over the years while the percentage of GBC diagnosed by imaging, surgery, and biochemistry sharply increased from 1987 onwards.

Conclusions: Thirty-seven years of cancer registry data document a tremendous increase in incidence/mortality and a slight decline in incidence/mortality over the last decades for GBC, especially among women, in Shanghai. The development of diagnostic approaches and aging population may play important roles.