Prediction of Early Recurrence of Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

Hepatocellular carcinomas(HCC) consisted of heterogeneous subtypes with different recurrence probabilities after liver transplantation(LT). Our study aimed to develop an improved model for predicting the recurrence of solitary HCC after LT. In this retrospective study, 151 solitary HCC patients who received orthotopic LT over a period of 10 consecutive years were included. All recipients received graft from deceased donors. The first eligible 50 patients were used as validation cohort and others were utilized to construct the model. A two-tailed P < 0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance for all analysis. Based on the maximisation of the Youden's index, the optimal cutoff values for alpha-fetoprotein(AFP) and tumor diameter were 261.6 ng/mL and 3.6 cm, respectively. Vascular involvement includes gross and microscopic vascular invasion. Variables potentially affecting recurrence-free survival(RFS) were examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that AFP, tumor diameter, vascular invasion and cytokeratin-19/glypican-3 sub-typing were independent prognostic factors for RFS, thus comprised the risk scoring model. The AUC values of the model in the cohorts were significantly higher than that of the Milan, UCSF, Fudan and Hangzhou criteria. These findings suggest the model has high performance in predicting early recurrence of solitary HCC patients after LT.