Tolvaptan Response Improves Overall Survival in Patients with Refractory Ascites: A Meta-Analysis

Background And Aims: Refractory ascites represents a significant complication of decompensated cirrhosis, associated with increased mortality rates. The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate whether response to treatment with tolvaptan is associated with improved overall survival in cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites.

Methods: Medline, Scopus, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Clinicaltrials.gov, and Google Scholar databases were systematically searched from inception to April 11, 2019. All studies that assessed the overall survival of patients with ascites depending on their response to tolvaptan were held eligible.

Results: Nine studies were included, with a total of 736 patients with cirrhosis and ascites. Response to tolvaptan was estimated to be linked to significantly improved overall survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.42, 95% CI [0.31-0.58]). Subgroup analysis indicated that the same outcome was present when tolvaptan responsiveness was defined either as effective body weight loss (HR 0.44, 95% CI [0.30-0.63] or as effective sodium restoration (HR 0.35, 95% CI [0.20-0.61]. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, the sample size, and the quality of the studies did not significantly affect the overall result of the meta-analysis.

Conclusions: The outcomes of the meta-analysis support the prognostic role of tolvaptan response in patients with cirrhosis and refractory ascites, as it was shown to lead to significantly improved overall survival. These findings should be confirmed by future large-scale studies, while efficient biomarkers should be identified in order to accurately predict response to tolvaptan and discriminate patients that would benefit from its administration.