Predictors of Long-term Mortality After Hospitalization for Severe COPD Exacerbation

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a global health problem resulting in significant morbidity. Acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) is a severe complication associated with increased short- and long-term mortality. Identifying predictors of long-term mortality after a severe AECOPD may improve management and long-term outcome of this disease. A two-year prospective cohort study was undertaken in an academical medical center between 2016 and 2018. Patients with severe AECOPD who required non-invasive ventilation (NIV) were included. Baseline characteristics at inclusion, comorbidities (kidney dysfunction, left heart disease, diabetes), number of prior episodes of AECOPD and indication for long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) or non-invasive ventilation (LTNIV) were recorded. Patients were monitored for a two-year period after initial admission. Outcomes were six-month, one-year and two-year mortality, irrespective of cause. 51 patients (31 male, mean age 68.1) were included in the study. Mortality rates at six months, one year and two years were 20, 26 and 36%, respectively. Patients receiving LTOT and LTNIV at discharge had lower mortality at two years versus patients with no indication for LTOT and LTNIV at discharge. Absence of LTOT increased six-month mortality (OR .2, 95% CI, .04 to .90) and one-year mortality (p<.05). FEV1 and BMI were also correlated with long-term mortality in univariate analysis, p<.05. Age, number of prior episodes of AECOPD or the presence of comorbidities had no influence on long-term mortality. After an episode of severe AECOPD, LTOT is associated with lower long-term mortality when compared to patients with no severe hypoxemia at discharge. A decreased lung function and body mass index increase long-term mortality.