Impacts on Human Mortality Due to Reductions in PM Concentrations Through Different Traffic Scenarios in Paris, France

Objectives: Air pollution is a well-known burden for population health and health systems worldwide. Reduction in air pollution is associated with improvements in mortality and rates of respiratory, cardiovascular and other diseases. Though air quality is a problem globally, efforts to lower air pollutant concentrations are usually regional or local. In industrialized countries, most urban air pollution is caused by vehicles, suggesting reductions in traffic would result in reductions of pollution. However, detailed data on how such reductions can be achieved and impact public health is just beginning to emerge, and other influencing factors, including vehicle flow or urban landscape are largely unaccounted for.

Methods: We utilized a unique combination of vehicle emission measurements combined with simulations of traffic and vehicle variations, as well as urban topographies, to quantify health impacts of PM reduction in a single district of Paris, France, for various methods of traffic improvement. Here we rank and evaluate improvements in non-accidental mortality for thirteen possible scenarios to reduce traffic related PM emissions.

Results: The maximum impact scenario requires all passenger vehicles to meet Euro 5 standards and excludes diesel vehicles, resulting in long-term decreases in non-accidental mortality of 148.79 people per year, or 104.40 per 100,000 people. Similar reductions hold for the scenario requiring a completely electric passenger fleet, with long-term annual reductions of 137.14 premature mortalities. Removing all diesel vehicles is the third most impactful scenario, preventing 135.55 deaths yearly.

Discussion: PARTLESS provides comparisons between thirteen different traffic-related air quality reduction mechanisms in terms of improvements in mortality rates. Improving emissions standards, increasing electric vehicle use and removing diesel vehicles can prevent more than 148 deaths per year in this district alone. Further improvements in mortality reduction may require changes to the composition of vehicle components, asphalt or to the management of resuspended particulate matter.