Distinct Trajectories of HbA in Newly Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes from the DPV Registry Using a Longitudinal Group-based Modelling Approach

Aim: To identify groups of heterogeneous HbA trajectories over time in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes.

Methods: The study comprised 6355 adults with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes (55% men, median age 62 years, baseline BMI 31 kg/m ) from the Diabetes Patienten Verlaufsdokumentation (DPV) prospective multicentre diabetes registry (Germany, Austria). Individuals were assessed during the first 5 years after diabetes diagnosis if they had ≥ 3 aggregated HbA measurements during follow-up. Latent class growth modelling was used to determine distinct subgroups that followed similar longitudinal HbA patterns (SAS: Proc Traj). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to investigate which variables were associated with the respective HbA trajectory groups.

Results: Four distinct longitudinal HbA trajectory (glycaemic control) groups were found. The largest group (56% of participants) maintained stable good glycaemic control (HbA 42-45 mmol/mol). Twenty-six percent maintained stable moderate glycaemic control (HbA 57-62 mmol/mol). A third group (12%) initially showed severe hyperglycaemia (HbA 97 mmol/mol) but reached good glycaemic control within 1 year. The smallest group (6%) showed stable poor glycaemic control (HbA 79-88 mmol/mol). Younger age at diabetes diagnosis, male sex, and higher BMI were associated with the stable moderate or poor glycaemic control groups. Insulin therapy was strongly associated with the highly improved glycaemic control group.

Conclusions: Four subgroups with distinct HbA trajectories were determined in newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes using a group-based modelling approach. Approximately one-third of people with newly diagnosed Type 2 diabetes need either better medication adherence or earlier intensification of glucose-lowering therapy.