Predicting Individualized Mortality Probabilities for Patients with Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Maxilla: Novel Models with Clinical and Histopathological Predictors

Background: The aim of this article was to develop prediction models that calculate postoperative 2- and 5-year mortality probabilities of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the maxilla (MSCC).

Methods: Data were collected from the medical records of patients who had been operated between 2000 and 2015 for MSCC. Potential clinical and histopathological predictors were identified. Confounding-(un)adjusted multivariate Cox and logistic regression models were computed with stepwise backward selection. Internal validation was performed to assess calibration and discriminatory ability.

Results: Ninety-five patients with MSCC were included. Two-year follow-up was complete, and 85 patients had 5-year follow-up. Age, neck treatment, surgical margins, bone invasion, spindle growth, and vasoinvasive growth were associated with mortality. Models were adjusted for confounding with Charlson's comorbidities index. C-indexes were .841 and .770 respectively, and .838 and .749 after bootstrapping.

Conclusion: The MSCC-specific mortality probability can be calculated with new prediction models.