Parathyroid Hormone Independently Predicts Fracture, Vascular Events, and Death in Patients with Stage 3 and 4 Chronic Kidney Disease

Purpose: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects ~ 20% of older adults, and secondary hyperparathyroidism (HPT) is a common condition in these patients. To what degree HPT predicts fractures, vascular events, and mortality in pre-dialysis CKD patients is debated. In stage 3 and 4 CKD patients, we assessed relationships between baseline serum PTH levels and subsequent 10-year probabilities of clinical fractures, vascular events, and death.

Methods: We used Marshfield Clinic Health System electronic health records to analyze data from adult CKD patients receiving care between 1985 and 2013, and whose PTH was measured using a second-generation assay. Covariates included PTH, age, gender, tobacco use, vascular disease, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, obesity, GFR, and use of osteoporosis medications.

Results: Five thousand one hundred eight subjects had a mean age of 68 ± 17 years, 48% were men, and mean follow-up was 23 ± 10 years. Fractures, vascular events, and death occurred in 18%, 71%, and 56% of the cohort, respectively. In univariate and multivariate models, PTH was an independent predictor of fracture, vascular events, and death. The hazards of fracture, vascular events and death were minimized at a baseline PTH of 0, 69, and 58 pg/mL, respectively.

Conclusions: We found that among individuals with stage 3 and 4 CKD, PTH was an independent predictor of fractures, vascular events, and death. Additional epidemiologic studies are needed to confirm these findings. If a target PTH range can be confirmed, then randomized placebo-controlled trials will be needed to confirm that treating HPT reduces the risk of fracture, vascular events, and death.