Development and Validation of a Prediction Rule for Estimating Gastric Cancer Risk in the Chinese High-risk Population: a Nationwide Multicentre Study

Objective: To develop a gastric cancer (GC) risk prediction rule as an initial prescreening tool to identify individuals with a high risk prior to gastroscopy.

Design: This was a nationwide multicentre cross-sectional study. Individuals aged 40-80 years who went to hospitals for a GC screening gastroscopy were recruited. Serum pepsinogen (PG) I, PG II, gastrin-17 (G-17) and anti- IgG antibody concentrations were tested prior to endoscopy. Eligible participants (n=14 929) were randomly assigned into the derivation and validation cohorts, with a ratio of 2:1. Risk factors for GC were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses and an optimal prediction rule was then settled.

Results: The novel GC risk prediction rule comprised seven variables (age, sex, PG I/II ratio, G-17 level, infection, pickled food and fried food), with scores ranging from 0 to 25. The observed prevalence rates of GC in the derivation cohort at low-risk (≤11), medium-risk (12-16) or high-risk (17-25) group were 1.2%, 4.4% and 12.3%, respectively (p<0.001).When gastroscopy was used for individuals with medium risk and high risk, 70.8% of total GC cases and 70.3% of early GC cases were detected. While endoscopy requirements could be reduced by 66.7% according to the low-risk proportion. The prediction rule owns a good discrimination, with an area under curve of 0.76, or calibration (p<0.001).

Conclusions: The developed and validated prediction rule showed good performance on identifying individuals at a higher risk in a Chinese high-risk population. Future studies are needed to validate its efficacy in a larger population.