Temporal Trends in the Incidence Of and Mortality Associated With Heart Failure With Preserved and Reduced Ejection Fraction

Objectives: This study aimed to determine temporal trends in the incidence of and mortality associated with heart failure (HF) and its subtypes (heart failure with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and heart rate with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF]) in the community.

Background: Major shifts in cardiovascular disease risk factor prevalence and advances in therapies may have influenced HF incidence and mortality.

Methods: In the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) and CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study), for participants who were ≥60 years of age and free of HF (n = 15,217; 60% women; 2,524 incident HF cases; 115,703 person-years of follow-up), we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios of HF, HFrEF, and HFpEF from 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2009. We compared the cumulative incidence of and mortality associated with HFrEF versus HFpEF within and between decades.

Results: Across the 2 decades, HF incidence rate ratio was similar (p = 0.13). The incidence rate ratio of HFrEF declined (p = 0.0029), whereas HFpEF increased (p < 0.001). Although HFrEF incidence declined more in men than in women, men had a higher incidence of HFrEF than women in each decade (p < 0.001). The incidence of HFpEF significantly increased over time in both men and women (p < 0.001 and p = 0.02, respectively). During follow-up after HF, 1,701 individuals died (67.4%; HFrEF, n = 557 [33%]; HFpEF, n = 474 [29%]). There were no significant differences in mortality rates (overall, cardiovascular disease, and noncardiovascular disease) across decades within HF subtypes or between HFrEF and HFpEF within decade.

Conclusions: In several U.S. community-based samples from 1990 to 2009, we observed divergent trends of decreasing HFrEF and increasing HFpEF incidence, with stable overall HF incidence and high risk for mortality. Our findings highlight the need to elucidate factors contributing to these observations.