Combination of Pre-Treatment DWI-Signal Intensity and S-1 Treatment: A Predictor of Survival in Patients with Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Receiving Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy and Sequential S-1

Objective: To identify whether the combination of pre-treatment radiological and clinical factors can predict the overall survival (OS) in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) treated with stereotactic body radiation and sequential S-1 (a prodrug of 5-FU combined with two modulators) therapy with improved accuracy compared with that of established clinical and radiologic risk models.

Methods: Patients admitted with LAPC underwent diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) scan at 3.0-T (b = 600 s/mm). The mean signal intensity (SI = 600) of region-of-interest (ROI) was measured. The Log-rank test was done for tumor location, biliary stent, S-1, and other treatments and the Cox regression analysis was done to identify independent prognostic factors for OS. Prediction error curves (PEC) were used to assess potential errors in prediction of survival. The accuracy of prediction was evaluated by Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and C index.

Results: 41 patients were included in this study. The median OS was 11.7 months (2.8-23.23 months). The 1-year OS was 46%. Multivariate analysis showed that pre-treatment SI = 600 value and administration of S-1 were independent predictors for OS. The performance of pre-treatment SI = 600 and S-1 treatment in combination was better than that of SI = 600 or S-1 treatment alone.

Conclusion: The combination of pre-treatment SI = 600 and S-1 treatment could predict the OS in patients with LAPC undergoing SBRT and sequential S-1 therapy with improved accuracy compared with that of established clinical and radiologic risk models.