Next-generation Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator for Primary Care Physicians

Overview

Journal Can Urol Assoc J

Specialty Urology

Date 2018 Jan 31

PMID 29381462

Citations 7

Authors

Robert K Nam

Raj Satkunavisam

Joseph L Chin

Jonathan Izawa

John Trachtenberg

Ricardo Rendon

David Bell

Rajiv Singal

Christopher Sherman

Linda Sugar

Kevin Chagin

Michael W Kattan

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Introduction: Current prostate cancer risk calculators are limited in impact because only a probability of having prostate cancer is provided. We developed the next generation of prostate cancer risk calculator that incorporates life expectancy in order to better evaluate prostate cancer risk in context to a patient's age and comorbidity.

Methods: We combined two cohorts to develop the new risk calculator. The first was 5638 subjects who all underwent a prostate biopsy for prostate cancer detection. The second was 979 men diagnosed with prostate cancer with long-term survival data. Two regression models were used to create multivariable nomograms and an online prostate cancer risk calculator was developed.

Results: Of the 5638 patients who underwent a prostate biopsy, 629 (11%) were diagnosed with aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason Score 7[4+3] or more). Of the 979 patients who underwent treatment for prostate cancer, the 10-year overall survival (OS) was 49.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.6-52.9). The first multivariable nomogram for cancer risk had a concordance index of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76), and the second nomogram to predict survival had a concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69-0.72). The next-generation prostate cancer risk calculator was developed online and is available at: http://riskcalc.org/ProstateCA_Screen_Tool.

Conclusions: We have developed the next-generation prostate cancer risk calculator that incorporates a patient's life expectancy based on age and comorbidity. This approach will better evaluate prostate cancer risk. Future studies examining other populations will be needed for validation.

Citing Articles

Risk calculators for the detection of prostate cancer: a systematic review.

Denijs F, van Harten M, Meenderink J, Leenen R, Remmers S, Venderbos L Prostate Cancer Prostatic Dis. 2024; 27(3):544-557.

PMID: 38830997 DOI: 10.1038/s41391-024-00852-w.

Personalized 5-Year Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Model in Korea Based on Nationwide Representative Data.

Yeo Y, Shin D, Lee J, Han K, Park S, Jeon K J Pers Med. 2022; 12(1).

PMID: 35055319 PMC: 8780119. DOI: 10.3390/jpm12010002.

Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators for Healthy Populations: Systematic Review.

Bandala-Jacques A, Castellanos Esquivel K, Perez-Hurtado F, Hernandez-Silva C, Reynoso-Noveron N JMIR Cancer. 2021; 7(3):e30430.

PMID: 34477564 PMC: 8449298. DOI: 10.2196/30430.

Novel Metabolic Signatures of Prostate Cancer Revealed by H-NMR Metabolomics of Urine.

Yang B, Zhang C, Cheng S, Li G, Griebel J, Neuhaus J Diagnostics (Basel). 2021; 11(2).

PMID: 33498542 PMC: 7909529. DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics11020149.

Personalized strategies in population screening for prostate cancer.

Remmers S, Roobol M Int J Cancer. 2020; 147(11):2977-2987.

PMID: 32394421 PMC: 7586980. DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33045.

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