Distributional Benefits of Tobacco Tax and Smoke-free Workplaces in China: A Modeling Study

Background: Tobacco taxation and smoke-free workplaces reduce smoking, tobacco-related premature deaths and associated out-of-pocket health care expenditures. We examine the distributional consequences of a price increase in tobacco products through an excise tax hike, and of an implementation of smoke-free workplaces, in China.

Methods: We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the male population (the large majority of Chinese smokers), the premature deaths averted, the change in tax revenues generated, and the financial risk protection procured (eg, poverty cases averted, defined as the number of individuals no longer facing tobacco-related out-of-pocket expenditures for disease treatment, that would otherwise impoverish them), that would follow a 75% increase in cigarette prices through substantial increments in excise tax fully passed onto consumers, and a nationwide total implementation of workplace smoking bans.

Results: A 75% increase in cigarette prices would avert about 24 million premature deaths among the current Chinese male population, with a third among the bottom income quintile, increase additional tax revenues by US$ 46 billion annually, and prevent around 9 million poverty cases, 19% of which among the bottom income quintile. Implementation of smoking bans in workplaces would avert about 12 million premature deaths, with a fifth among the bottom income quintile, decrease tax revenues by US$ 7 billion annually, and prevent around 4 million poverty cases, 12% of which among the bottom income quintile.

Conclusions: Increased excise taxes on tobacco products and workplace smoking bans can procure large health and economic benefits to the Chinese population, especially among the poor.