Clinical Factors Predicting Persistent Carriage of Klebsiella Pneumoniae Carbapenemase-producing Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae Among Patients with Known Carriage

Background: Information on the natural duration of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) carriage and factors associated with persistence of carriage is limited.

Aim: To evaluate the clinical variables associated with persistent carriage of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC)-producing CRE.

Methods: Data for patients admitted between June 2015 and December 2016 who were identified as KPC-producing CRE carriers by either rectal swabs or clinical cultures were reviewed retrospectively. Patients with follow-up culture data for three months after initial acquisition were included. Regression models were used to evaluate the clinical variables associated with persistence of carriage.

Findings: Of the 100 eligible patients, 50 patients (50%) experienced spontaneous decolonization within three months. Among the 50 patients (50%) who remained culture positive after three months, 26 patients carried KPC-producing CRE after six months. Multi-variable analysis revealed that re-admission [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 9.96; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-87.98; P=0.039], duration of hospitalization (aOR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.05; P=0.003), positive clinical culture (aOR 6.26; 95% CI 1.28-30.54; P=0.023) and carbapenem use (OR 9.15; 95% CI 1.85-45.27; P=0.007) were predictive for persistent carriage after six months.

Conclusion: The results suggest that patients with KPC-producing CRE in clinical specimens who are using carbapenem, particularly those with multiple and prolonged hospitalizations, are more likely to remain carriers after six months of initial acquisition. This information is useful for coordinating strategies for pre-emptive isolation by predicting the CRE carriage status appropriately, and ensuring active surveillance through risk factor stratification.