Nonpaternity and Half-Siblingships As Objective Measures of Extramarital Sex: Mathematical Modeling and Simulations

Overview

Journal Biomed Res Int

Publisher Wiley

Specialties Biomedical Engineering
Biotechnology
General Medicine

Date 2017 Sep 15

PMID 28904953

Citations 1

Authors

Ryosuke Omori

Nico Nagelkerke

Laith J Abu-Raddad

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: Understanding the epidemiology of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) requires knowledge of sexual behavior, but self-reported behavior has limitations. We explored the reliability and validity of nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios as biomarkers of current and past extramarital sex.

Methods: An individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed to describe partnering and conception in human populations with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model was parameterized with representative biological, behavioral, and demographic data.

Results: Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios were strongly correlated with extramarital sex, with Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.71-0.86) and 0.77 (0.68-0.84), respectively. Age-specific nonpaternity ratios correlated with past extramarital sex at time of conception for different scenarios: for example, PCC, after smoothing by moving averages, was 0.75 (0.52-0.89) in a scenario of steadily decreasing nonmarital sex and 0.39 (0.01-0.73) in a scenario of transient drops in nonmarital sex. Simulations assuming self-reported levels of extramarital sex from Kenya yielded nonpaternity levels lower than global nonpaternity data, suggesting sizable underreporting of extramarital sex.

Conclusions: Nonpaternity and half-siblings ratios are useful objective measures of extramarital sex that avoid limitations in self-reported sexual behavior.

Citing Articles

Impact of a potential Chlamydia vaccine in the USA: mathematical modelling analyses.

Makhoul M, Ayoub H, Awad S, Chemaitelly H, Abu-Raddad L BMJ Public Health. 2025; 2(1):e000345.

PMID: 40018092 PMC: 11812766. DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2023-000345.

Does infection with induce long-lasting partial immunity? Insights from mathematical modelling.

Omori R, Chemaitelly H, Althaus C, Abu-Raddad L Sex Transm Infect. 2018; 95(2):115-121.

PMID: 30181327 PMC: 6580764. DOI: 10.1136/sextrans-2018-053543.

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