A Multicenter Assessment of the Ability of Preoperative Computed Tomography Scan and CA-125 to Predict Gross Residual Disease at Primary Debulking for Advanced Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

Objective: To assess the ability of preoperative computed tomography scan and CA-125 to predict gross residual disease (RD) at primary cytoreduction in advanced ovarian cancer.

Methods: A prospective, non-randomized, multicenter trial of patients who underwent primary debulking for stage III-IV epithelial ovarian cancer previously identified 9 criteria associated with suboptimal (>1cm residual) cytoreduction. This is a secondary post-hoc analysis looking at the ability to predict any RD. Four clinical and 18 radiologic criteria were assessed, and a multivariate model predictive of RD was developed.

Results: From 7/2001-12/2012, 350 patients met eligibility criteria. The complete gross resection rate was 33%. On multivariate analysis, 3 clinical and 8 radiologic criteria were significantly associated with the presence of any RD: age≥60years (OR=1.5); CA-125≥600U/mL (OR=1.3); ASA 3-4 (OR=1.6); lesions in the root of the superior mesenteric artery (OR=4.1), splenic hilum/ligaments (OR=1.4), lesser sac >1cm (OR=2.2), gastrohepatic ligament/porta hepatis (OR=1.4), gallbladder fossa/intersegmental fissure (OR=2); suprarenal retroperitoneal lymph nodes (OR=1.3); small bowel adhesions/thickening (OR=1.1); and moderate-severe ascites (OR=2.2). All ORs were significant with p<0.01. A 'predictive score' was assigned to each criterion based on its multivariate OR, and the rate of having any RD for patients who had a total score of 0-2, 3-5, 6-8, and ≥9 was 45%, 68%, 87%, and 96%, respectively.

Conclusions: We identified 11 criteria associated with RD, and developed a predictive model in which the rate of having any RD was directly proportional to a predictive score. This model may be helpful in treatment planning.