Predicting Risk Factors for Varicella Zoster Virus Infection and Postherpetic Neuralgia After Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Using Ordered Logistic Regression Analysis

To identify risk factors for varicella zoster virus (VZV) infection and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), we conducted a retrospective chart review of 163 consecutive patients who underwent HCT between November 2004 and July 2014. Overall, the male/female (M/F) ratio was 80/83, median age at HCT was 54 (range 15-69) years, and autologous/allogeneic HCT (auto/allo-HCT) ratio was 71/92. Forty-four patients [M/F, 25/19; median age, 57 (range: 16-68) years; auto/allo-HCT, 26/18] developed VZV infection after HCT. All cases were successfully treated with acyclovir (ACV) or valacyclovir, and there was no VZV-related death. Nine (20%) of the 44 patients [M/F, 5/4; median age, 58 (range: 21-63) years; auto/allo-HCT, 7/2] developed PHN after resolution of zoster. Multivariate ordered logistic analysis identified receiving immunosuppressive therapy at the cessation of ACV [odds ratio (OR) = 74.53; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.99-794.32; P = 0.0004] as a risk factor for VZV infection and PHN in allo-HCT recipients. However, in auto-HCT recipients, only advanced age was identified as a risk factor (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.002-1.127, P = 0.0429). Our findings indicate receiving immunosuppressive therapy at the cessation of ACV is a significant risk factor for allo-HCT recipients, while advanced age is a significant risk factor for auto-HCT recipients.