Under-five Mortality and Maternal HIV Status in Tanzania: Analysis of Trends Between 2003 and 2012 Using AIDS Indicator Survey Data

Background: Mortality among children under five remains a significant health challenge across sub-Saharan Africa. HIV/AIDS is one of the leading contributors to the relatively slow decline in under-five mortality in this region. In Tanzania, HIV prevalence among under-five children is high and 90% of all infections are due to mother-to-child transmission.

Objectives: The study aimed to examine the association between maternal HIV-positive status and under-five mortality in Tanzania. It also aimed to estimate the proportions and trends of under-five mortality attributable to maternal HIV/AIDS in Tanzania between 2003 and 2012.

Design: Binomial logistic regression was used to analyze cross-sectional survey data from the Tanzania AIDS Indicator Surveys to examine the association between maternal HIV positivity and under-five mortality between 2003 and 2012.

Results: After controlling for confounders, the adjusted odds ratios were 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) in 2003-2004, 4.6 (95% CI 2.7-7.8) in 2007-2008, and 2.4 (95% CI 1.2-4.6) in 2011-2012. The maternal HIV-attributable mortality risk percent of under-five children was 3.7 percent in 2003-2004, 11.3 percent in 2007-2008 and 5.6% in 2011-2012.

Conclusion: Maternal HIV positivity is associated with under-five mortality in Tanzania, making maternal HIV serostatus a relevant determinant of whether a child will survive up to five years of age or not. The impact of maternal HIV/AIDS attributable mortality risk has a significant contribution to the overall under-five mortality in Tanzania. The continued monitoring of HIV and mortality trends is important for policy development and design of interventions.