Bayesian Survival Analysis of High-Dimensional Microarray Data for Mantle Cell Lymphoma Patients

Background: Survival time of lymphoma patients can be estimated with the help of microarray technology. In this study, with the use of iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, survival time of Mantle Cell Lymphoma patients (MCL) was estimated and in reference to the findings, patients were divided into two high- risk and low-risk groups.

Materials And Methods: In this study, gene expression data of MCL patients were used in order to select a subset of genes for survival analysis with microarray data, using the iterative BMA method. To evaluate the performance of the method, patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk based on their scores. Performance prediction was investigated using the log-rank test. The bioconductor package "iterativeBMAsurv" was applied with R statistical software for classification and survival analysis.

Results: In this study, 25 genes associated with survival for MCL patients were identified across 132 selected models. The maximum likelihood estimate coefficients of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models were obtained from training data. Using this method, patients could be separated into high-risk and low-risk groups with high significance (p<0.001).

Conclusions: The iterative BMA algorithm has high precision and ability for survival analysis. This method is capable of identifying a few predictive variables associated with survival, among many variables in a set of microarray data. Therefore, it can be used as a low-cost diagnostic tool in clinical research.