Circular Analysis in Complex Stochastic Systems

Overview

Journal Sci Rep

Specialty Science

Date 2015 Dec 15

PMID 26656656

Citations 2

Authors

Angelo Valleriani

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Ruling out observations can lead to wrong models. This danger occurs unwillingly when one selects observations, experiments, simulations or time-series based on their outcome. In stochastic processes, conditioning on the future outcome biases all local transition probabilities and makes them consistent with the selected outcome. This circular self-consistency leads to models that are inconsistent with physical reality. It is also the reason why models built solely on macroscopic observations are prone to this fallacy.

Citing Articles

A conditional likelihood is required to estimate the selection coefficient in ancient DNA.

Valleriani A Sci Rep. 2016; 6:31561.

PMID: 27527811 PMC: 4985692. DOI: 10.1038/srep31561.

Predict or classify: The deceptive role of time-locking in brain signal classification.

Rusconi M, Valleriani A Sci Rep. 2016; 6:28236.

PMID: 27320688 PMC: 4913298. DOI: 10.1038/srep28236.

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