Development of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Infection Who Achieved Sustained Virological Response Following Interferon Therapy: A Large-scale, Long-term Cohort Study

Background: We assessed the risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following successful eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) with interferon (IFN) therapy in a long-term, large-scale cohort study.

Methods: We reviewed 1094 consecutive patients with HCV who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) following IFN therapy between January 1995 and September 2013.

Results: During the observation period (median 50 months: range 13-224), 36 (3%) of 1094 patients developed HCC after SVR. The median period from SVR to diagnosis of HCC was 37 months (range 17-141), and the cumulative rates of HCC at 5, 10, and 15 years were 4%, 6%, and 12%, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified old age (≥60 years, HR, 3.1: 95%CI, 1.3-6.6: P = 0.009), male sex (HR, 12.0: 95%CI, 2.8-50.0: P < 0.0001), advanced fibrosis stage (F3/4, HR, 3.2: 95%CI, 1.6-7.2: P < 0.0001), and alpha-fetoprotein ≥10 ng/mL at 1 year after SVR (HR, 7.8: 95%CI, 2.9-16.8: P < 0.0001) as significant and independent risk factors for post-SVR HCC.

Conclusions: Older age and male sex (host factors), advanced fibrosis stage (pre-IFN treatment factor), and higher alpha-fetoprotein values (post-treatment factor) were significantly associated with HCC development after HCV eradication.