El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Local Weather and Occurrences of Dengue Virus Serotypes

Overview

Journal Sci Rep

Specialty Science

Date 2015 Nov 20

PMID 26581295

Citations 7

Authors

Xiaodong Huang

Archie C A Clements

Gail Williams

Gregor Devine

Shilu Tong

Wenbiao Hu

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Severe dengue fever is usually associated with secondary infection by a dengue virus (DENV) serotype (1 to 4) that is different to the serotype of the primary infection. Dengue outbreaks only occur following importations of DENV in Cairns, Australia. However, the majority of imported cases do not result in autochthonous transmission in Cairns. Although DENV transmission is strongly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle and local weather conditions, the frequency and potential risk factors of infections with the different DENV serotypes, including whether or not they differ, is unknown. This study used a classification tree model to identify the hierarchical interactions between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), local weather factors, the presence of imported serotypes and the occurrence of the four autochthonous DENV serotypes from January 2000-December 2009 in Cairns. We found that the 12-week moving average of SOI and the 2-week moving average of maximum temperature were the most important factors influencing the variation in the weekly occurrence of the four DENV serotypes, the likelihoods of the occurrence of the four DENV serotypes may be unequal under the same environmental conditions, and occurrence may be influenced by changes in global and local environmental conditions in Cairns.

Citing Articles

El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for dengue outbreak in India.

Pramanik M, Singh P, Kumar G, Ojha V, Dhiman R BMC Public Health. 2020; 20(1):1498.

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Heatwaves and dengue outbreaks in Hanoi, Vietnam: New evidence on early warning.

Cheng J, Bambrick H, Yakob L, Devine G, Frentiu F, Toan D PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020; 14(1):e0007997.

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Spatio-temporal spillover risk of yellow fever in Brazil.

Kaul R, Evans M, Murdock C, Drake J Parasit Vectors. 2018; 11(1):488.

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Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

Lee J, Carabali M, Lim J, Herrera V, Park I, Villar L BMC Infect Dis. 2017; 17(1):480.

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Using Baidu Search Index to Predict Dengue Outbreak in China.

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