Identifying Spatial Clusters of Schistosomiasis in Anhui Province of China: A Study from the Perspective of Application

With the strategy shifting from morbidity control to transmission interruption, the burden of schistosomiasis in China has been declining over the past decade. However, further controls of the epidemic in the lake and marshland regions remain a challenge. Prevalence data at county level were obtained from the provincial surveillance system in Anhui during 1997-2010. Spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial scan statistics were combined to assess the spatial pattern of schistosomiasis. The spatial-temporal cluster analysis based on retrospective space-time scan statistics was further used to detect risk clusters. The Global Moran's I coefficients were mostly statistically significant during 1997-2004 but not significant during 2005-2010. The clusters detected by two spatial cluster methods occurred in Nanling, Tongling, Qingyang and Wuhu during 1997-2004, and Guichi and Wuhu from 2005 to 2010, respectively. Spatial-temporal cluster analysis revealed 2 main clusters, namely Nanling (1999-2002) and Guichi (2005-2008). The clustering regions were significantly narrowed while the spatial extent became scattered during the study period. The high-risk areas shifted from the low reaches of the Yangtze River to the upper stream, suggesting the focus of schistosomiasis control should be shifted accordingly and priority should be given to the snail habitats within the high-risk areas of schistosomiasis.