Spatial Clustering of Measles Cases During Endemic (1998-2002) and Epidemic (2010) Periods in Lusaka, Zambia

Background: Measles cases may cluster in densely populated urban centers in sub-Saharan Africa as susceptible individuals share spatially dependent risk factors and may cluster among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children despite high vaccination coverage.

Methods: Children hospitalized with measles at the University Teaching Hospital (UTH) in Lusaka, Zambia were enrolled in the study. The township of residence was recorded on the questionnaire and mapped; SaTScan software was used for cluster detection. A spatial-temporal scan statistic was used to investigate clustering of measles in children hospitalized during an endemic period (1998 to 2002) and during the 2010 measles outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia.

Results: Three sequential and spatially contiguous clusters of measles cases were identified during the 2010 outbreak but no clustering among HIV-infected children was identified. In contrast, a space-time cluster among HIV-infected children was identified during the endemic period. This cluster occurred prior to the introduction of intensive measles control efforts and during a period between seasonal peaks in measles incidence.

Conclusions: Prediction and early identification of spatial clusters of measles will be critical to achieving measles elimination. HIV infection may contribute to spatial clustering of measles cases in some epidemiological settings.