The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: a Time Series Analysis

Overview

Journal Int J Environ Res Public Health

Publisher MDPI

Specialties Environmental Health
Public Health

Date 2015 Feb 13

PMID 25674784

Citations 18

Authors

Maquins Sewe

Joacim Rocklov

John Williamson

Mary Hamel

Amek Nyaguara

Frank Odhiambo

Kayla Laserson

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Malaria is among the leading causes of mortality in the younger under-five group of children zero to four years of age. This study aims at describing the relationship between rainfall and temperature on under-five malaria or anaemia mortality in Kenya Medical Research Institute and United States Centers for Disease Control (KEMRI/CDC) Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This study was conducted through the ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. A general additive model with a Poisson link function was fit to model the weekly association of lagged cumulative rainfall and average temperature on malaria/anemia mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS for the period 2003 to 2008. A trend function was included in the model to control for time trends and seasonality not explained by weather fluctuations. 95% confidence intervals was presented with estimates. Malaria or anemia mortality was found to be associated with changes in temperature and rainfall in the KEMRI HDSS, with a delay up to 16 weeks. The empirical estimates of associations describe established biological relationships well. This information, and particularly, the strength of the relationships over longer lead times can highlight the possibility of developing a predictive forecast with lead times up to 16 weeks in order to enhance preparedness to high transmission episodes.

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