Learning From Leaders: Life-span Trends in Olympians and Supercentenarians
Overview
Authors
Affiliations
Life-span trends progression has worldwide practical implications as it may affect the sustainability of modern societies. We aimed to describe the secular life-span trends of populations with a propensity to live longer-Olympians and supercentenarians-under two hypotheses: an ongoing life-span extension versus a biologic "probabilistic barrier" limiting further progression. In a study of life-span densities (total number of life durations per birth date), we analyzed 19,012 Olympians and 1,205 supercentenarians deceased between 1900 and 2013. Among most Olympians, we observed a trend toward increased life duration. This trend, however, decelerates at advanced ages leveling off with the upper values with a perennial gap between Olympians and supercentenarians during the whole observation period. Similar tendencies are observed among supercentenarians, and over the last years, a plateau attests to a stable longevity pattern among the longest-lived humans. The common trends between Olympians and supercentenarians indicate similar mortality pressures over both populations that increase with age, scenario better explained by a biologic "barrier" forecast.
Probabilistic forecasting of maximum human lifespan by 2100 using Bayesian population projections.
Pearce M, Raftery A Demogr Res. 2024; 44:1271-1294.
PMID: 39363909 PMC: 11448547. DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.44.52.
Goncalves M, Weon B Front Public Health. 2023; 10:1037544.
PMID: 36684960 PMC: 9853412. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1037544.
Covid-19 Mortality: A Matter of Vulnerability Among Nations Facing Limited Margins of Adaptation.
De Larochelambert Q, Marc A, Antero J, Le Bourg E, Toussaint J Front Public Health. 2020; 8:604339.
PMID: 33330343 PMC: 7710830. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339.
Do Centenarians Die Healthier than Younger Elders? A Comparative Epidemiological Study in Spain.
Clerencia-Sierra M, Ioakeim-Skoufa I, Poblador-Plou B, Gonzalez-Rubio F, Aza-Pascual-Salcedo M, Gimeno-Miguel M J Clin Med. 2020; 9(5).
PMID: 32455809 PMC: 7291259. DOI: 10.3390/jcm9051563.
Mortality of Japanese Olympic athletes: 1952-2017 cohort study.
Takeuchi T, Kitamura Y, Sado J, Hattori S, Kanemura Y, Naito Y BMJ Open Sport Exerc Med. 2020; 5(1):e000653.
PMID: 32206340 PMC: 7078660. DOI: 10.1136/bmjsem-2019-000653.