Development of Health Risk-based Metrics for Defining a Heatwave: a Time Series Study in Brisbane, Australia

Overview

Journal BMC Public Health

Publisher Biomed Central

Specialty Public Health

Date 2014 Jun 3

PMID 24885799

Citations 14

Authors

Shilu Tong

Xiao Yu Wang

Gerry Fitzgerald

David McRae

Gerard Neville

Vivienne Tippett

Peter Aitken

Ken Verrall

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Background: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia.

Methods: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane.

Results: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk for mortality in the 2nd half of a warm season than that in the 1st half. While elderly (≥75 years) were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a tiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave.

Conclusions: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. This tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.

Citing Articles

Impact of extreme heat on health in Australia: a scoping review.

Amoatey P, Xu Z, Odebeatu C, Singh N, Osborne N, Phung D BMC Public Health. 2025; 25(1):522.

PMID: 39920610 PMC: 11806623. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-025-21677-9.

A study on the monitoring of heatwaves and bivariate frequency analysis based on mortality risk assessment in Wuhan, China.

Chen S, Zhao J, Dou H, Yang Z, Li F, Byun J Front Public Health. 2024; 12:1409563.

PMID: 38962759 PMC: 11220200. DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1409563.

Timely accessibility to healthcare resources and heatwave-related mortality in 7 major cities of South Korea: a two-stage approach with principal component analysis.

Lee J, Min J, Lee W, Sun K, Cha W, Park C Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2024; 45:101022.

PMID: 38344132 PMC: 10851204. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101022.

Heatwaves and mortality in Queensland 2010-2019: implications for a homogenous state-wide approach.

Franklin R, Mason H, King J, Peden A, Nairn J, Miller L Int J Biometeorol. 2023; 67(3):503-515.

PMID: 36735072 PMC: 9974727. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02430-6.

An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat-associated mortality threshold: towards a heat health warning system.

Kapwata T, Gebreslasie M, Wright C Environ Health. 2022; 21(1):112.

PMID: 36401226 PMC: 9675182. DOI: 10.1186/s12940-022-00921-4.

References

Pattenden S, Nikiforov B, Armstrong B . Mortality and temperature in Sofia and London. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2003; 57(8):628-33. PMC: 1732532. DOI: 10.1136/jech.57.8.628. View

Gasparrini A, Armstrong B . The impact of heat waves on mortality. Epidemiology. 2010; 22(1):68-73. PMC: 3324776. DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181fdcd99. View

Barnett A, Tong S, Clements A . What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?. Environ Res. 2010; 110(6):604-11. DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006. View

Tong S, Wang X, Yu W, Chen D, Wang X . The impact of heatwaves on mortality in Australia: a multicity study. BMJ Open. 2014; 4(2):e003579. PMC: 3931989. DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-003579. View

Anderson G, Bell M . Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities. Environ Health Perspect. 2010; 119(2):210-8. PMC: 3040608. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1002313. View

Baccini M, Biggeri A, Accetta G, Kosatsky T, Katsouyanni K, Analitis A . Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities. Epidemiology. 2008; 19(5):711-9. DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e318176bfcd. View

Mastrangelo G, Hajat S, Fadda E, Buja A, Fedeli U, Spolaore P . Contrasting patterns of hospital admissions and mortality during heat waves: are deaths from circulatory disease a real excess or an artifact?. Med Hypotheses. 2006; 66(5):1025-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.mehy.2005.09.053. View

Barnett A, Hajat S, Gasparrini A, Rocklov J . Cold and heat waves in the United States. Environ Res. 2012; 112:218-24. DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2011.12.010. View

Ostro B, Roth L, Green R, Basu R . Estimating the mortality effect of the July 2006 California heat wave. Environ Res. 2009; 109(5):614-9. DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2009.03.010. View

10.

Linares C, Diaz J . Impact of high temperatures on hospital admissions: comparative analysis with previous studies about mortality (Madrid). Eur J Public Health. 2007; 18(3):317-22. DOI: 10.1093/eurpub/ckm108. View

11.

Guo Y, Barnett A, Pan X, Yu W, Tong S . The impact of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China: a case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. Environ Health Perspect. 2011; 119(12):1719-25. PMC: 3261984. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103598. View

12.

Semenza J, Rubin C, FALTER K, Selanikio J, Flanders W, Howe H . Heat-related deaths during the July 1995 heat wave in Chicago. N Engl J Med. 1996; 335(2):84-90. DOI: 10.1056/NEJM199607113350203. View

13.

Dippoliti D, Michelozzi P, Marino C, deDonato F, Menne B, Katsouyanni K . The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project. Environ Health. 2010; 9:37. PMC: 2914717. DOI: 10.1186/1476-069X-9-37. View

14.

Wang X, Barnett A, Yu W, Fitzgerald G, Tippett V, Aitken P . The impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia. Occup Environ Med. 2011; 69(3):163-9. DOI: 10.1136/oem.2010.062141. View

15.

Hajat S, Armstrong B, Gouveia N, Wilkinson P . Mortality displacement of heat-related deaths: a comparison of Delhi, São Paulo, and London. Epidemiology. 2005; 16(5):613-20. DOI: 10.1097/01.ede.0000164559.41092.2a. View

16.

Tong S, Wang X, Barnett A . Assessment of heat-related health impacts in Brisbane, Australia: comparison of different heatwave definitions. PLoS One. 2010; 5(8):e12155. PMC: 2921381. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0012155. View

17.

Naughton M, Henderson A, Mirabelli M, Kaiser R, Wilhelm J, Kieszak S . Heat-related mortality during a 1999 heat wave in Chicago. Am J Prev Med. 2002; 22(4):221-7. DOI: 10.1016/s0749-3797(02)00421-x. View

18.

Pascal M, Laaidi K, Ledrans M, Baffert E, Caserio-Schonemann C, Le Tertre A . France's heat health watch warning system. Int J Biometeorol. 2005; 50(3):144-53. DOI: 10.1007/s00484-005-0003-x. View

19.

Baccini M, Kosatsky T, Analitis A, Anderson H, DOvidio M, Menne B . Impact of heat on mortality in 15 European cities: attributable deaths under different weather scenarios. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2009; 65(1):64-70. DOI: 10.1136/jech.2008.085639. View

20.

Curriero F, Heiner K, Samet J, Zeger S, Strug L, Patz J . Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am J Epidemiol. 2002; 155(1):80-7. DOI: 10.1093/aje/155.1.80. View