Prediction of Coronary Artery Disease Severity Using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc Scores and a Newly Defined CHA2DS2-VASc-HS Score

As the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores include similar risk factors for the development of coronary artery disease (CAD), they may provide crucial information regarding the severity of coronary artery lesions and the risk of thromboembolism. To increase the likelihood of determining CAD severity, we formulated the CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score comprising hyperlipidemia and smoking in addition to the components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score and male instead of female gender. We aimed to investigate whether these 3 risk scores can be used to predict CAD severity. A total of 407 consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography were enrolled in the study. Presence of >50% stenosis in a coronary artery was assessed as significant CAD. Of the patients, 87 had normal coronary angiograms and served as group 1. The remaining 320 patients with coronary stenosis were further classified into 2 groups according to CAD with stenosis of <50% or ≥50%: 123 patients with mild CAD as group 2 and 197 patients with severe CAD as group 3. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores were significantly different among the 3 groups. The CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores correlated significantly with the number of diseased vessels (r = 0.406, p <0.001; r = 0.308, p <0.001; and r = 0.533, p <0.001, respectively) and the Gensini score (r = 0.383, p <0.001; r = 0.300, p <0.001; and r = 0.500, p <0.001, respectively). The CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was found to be the best scoring scheme to predict CAD severity in the area under the curve comparison of these scoring systems. For prediction of severe CAD, the cut-off value of CHA2DS2-VASc-HS score was >2 with a sensitivity of 85.2% and a specificity of 57.5% (area under the curve 0.802, 95% confidence interval 0.760 to 0.839, p <0.001). In conclusion, our findings suggest that the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, and especially CHA2DS2-VASc-HS scores could be considered predictive of the risk of severe CAD.