Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide in 5 South African Cities: a Retrospective Population-based Study

Overview

Journal Am J Public Health

Specialty Public Health

Date 2014 Jan 18

PMID 24432917

Citations 9

Authors

Richard G Matzopoulos

Mary Lou Thompson

Jonathan E Myers

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Objective: We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size.

Results: There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA.

Conclusions: Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

Citing Articles

Who is killing South African men? A retrospective descriptive study of forensic and police investigations into male homicide.

Matzopoulos R, Marineau L, Mhlongo S, Ketelo A, Prinsloo M, Dekel B BMJ Glob Health. 2024; 9(4).

PMID: 38599664 PMC: 11015244. DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014912.

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

Malta D, Soares Filho A, Pinto I, Minayo M, Lima C, Machado I Popul Health Metr. 2020; 18(Suppl 1):19.

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Gun-carrying restrictions and gun-related mortality, Colombia: a difference-in-difference design with fixed effects.

Vecino-Ortiz A, Guzman-Tordecilla D Bull World Health Organ. 2020; 98(3):170-176.

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Violence typologies and sociodemographic correlates in South African adolescents: a three-wave cross-sectional study.

Sui X, Massar K, Ruiter R, Reddy P BMC Public Health. 2020; 20(1):221.

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Global Mortality From Firearms, 1990-2016.

Naghavi M, Marczak L, Kutz M, Shackelford K, Arora M, Miller-Petrie M JAMA. 2018; 320(8):792-814.

PMID: 30167700 PMC: 6143020. DOI: 10.1001/jama.2018.10060.

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