Substantial Health and Economic Returns from Delayed Aging May Warrant a New Focus for Medical Research

Overview

Journal Health Aff (Millwood)

Specialty Health Services

Date 2013 Oct 9

PMID 24101058

Citations 126

Authors

Dana P Goldman

David Cutler

John W Rowe

Pierre-Carl Michaud

Jeffrey Sullivan

Desi Peneva

S Jay Olshansky

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Recent scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process (senescence) is now a realistic goal. Yet most medical research remains focused on combating individual diseases. Using the Future Elderly Model--a microsimulation of the future health and spending of older Americans--we compared optimistic "disease specific" scenarios with a hypothetical "delayed aging" scenario in terms of the scenarios' impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over fifty years. In contrast, addressing heart disease and cancer separately would yield diminishing improvements in health and longevity by 2060--mainly due to competing risks. Delayed aging would greatly increase entitlement outlays, especially for Social Security. However, these changes could be offset by increasing the Medicare eligibility age and the normal retirement age for Social Security. Overall, greater investment in research to delay aging appears to be a highly efficient way to forestall disease, extend healthy life, and improve public health.

Citing Articles

Selecting Appropriate Clinical Trial Endpoints for Geroscience Trials: A Path Towards Consensus.

Kritchevsky S, Zamora E, Bhasin S, Cohen A, Chandler A, Covinsky K Res Sq. 2025; .

PMID: 39989956 PMC: 11844647. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5920485/v1.

Multi-dimensional evidence from the UK Biobank shows the impact of diet and macronutrient intake on aging.

Zhu C, Wang Y, Yang X, Zhao Q, Xu W, Wang X Commun Med (Lond). 2025; 5(1):36.

PMID: 39905241 PMC: 11794871. DOI: 10.1038/s43856-025-00754-5.

Individual and additive effects of vitamin D, omega-3 and exercise on DNA methylation clocks of biological aging in older adults from the DO-HEALTH trial.

Bischoff-Ferrari H, Gangler S, Wieczorek M, Belsky D, Ryan J, Kressig R Nat Aging. 2025; .

PMID: 39900648 DOI: 10.1038/s43587-024-00793-y.

The Role of Quercetin, a Flavonoid in the Management of Pathogenesis Through Regulation of Oxidative Stress, Inflammation, and Biological Activities.

Alharbi H, Alshebremi M, Babiker A, Rahmani A Biomolecules. 2025; 15(1).

PMID: 39858545 PMC: 11763763. DOI: 10.3390/biom15010151.

Exploring the value and optimizing strategies of CA125, CA199, CEA, AFP, and PT in predicting adenomatous gastrointestinal polyps in elderly male patients.

Zhou J, Li Q, Rao C Medicine (Baltimore). 2024; 103(49):e40366.

PMID: 39654213 PMC: 11630973. DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000040366.

References

Harrison D, Strong R, Sharp Z, Nelson J, Astle C, Flurkey K . Rapamycin fed late in life extends lifespan in genetically heterogeneous mice. Nature. 2009; 460(7253):392-5. PMC: 2786175. DOI: 10.1038/nature08221. View

Lipton R, Hirsch J, Katz M, Wang C, Sanders A, Verghese J . Exceptional parental longevity associated with lower risk of Alzheimer's disease and memory decline. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2010; 58(6):1043-9. PMC: 2950109. DOI: 10.1111/j.1532-5415.2010.02868.x. View

Fries J . Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med. 1980; 303(3):130-5. DOI: 10.1056/NEJM198007173030304. View

Jemal A, Siegel R, Xu J, Ward E . Cancer statistics, 2010. CA Cancer J Clin. 2010; 60(5):277-300. DOI: 10.3322/caac.20073. View

Fries J, KOOP C, Beadle C, Cooper P, ENGLAND M, Greaves R . Reducing health care costs by reducing the need and demand for medical services. The Health Project Consortium. N Engl J Med. 1993; 329(5):321-5. DOI: 10.1056/NEJM199307293290506. View

Olshansky S, Goldman D, Zheng Y, Rowe J . Aging in America in the twenty-first century: demographic forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an Aging Society. Milbank Q. 2009; 87(4):842-62. PMC: 2888016. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2009.00581.x. View

de Magalhaes J, Cabral J, Magalhaes D . The influence of genes on the aging process of mice: a statistical assessment of the genetics of aging. Genetics. 2004; 169(1):265-74. PMC: 1448866. DOI: 10.1534/genetics.104.032292. View

Freedman V, Crimmins E, Schoeni R, Spillman B, Aykan H, Kramarow E . Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: report from a technical working group. Demography. 2004; 41(3):417-41. DOI: 10.1353/dem.2004.0022. View

Goldman D, Shang B, Bhattacharya J, Garber A, Hurd M, Joyce G . Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly. Health Aff (Millwood). 2005; 24 Suppl 2:W5R5-17. PMC: 6205231. DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r5. View

10.

Bhattacharya J, Cutler D, Goldman D, Hurd M, Joyce G, Lakdawalla D . Disability forecasts and future Medicare costs. Front Health Policy Res. 2004; 7:75-94. PMC: 6298747. DOI: 10.2202/1558-9544.1052. View

11.

Butler R, Miller R, Perry D, Carnes B, Williams T, Cassel C . New model of health promotion and disease prevention for the 21st century. BMJ. 2008; 337:a399. PMC: 2483908. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.a399. View

12.

Shekelle P, Ortiz E, Newberry S, Rich M, Rhodes S, Brook R . Identifying potential health care innovations for the future elderly. Health Aff (Millwood). 2005; 24 Suppl 2:W5R67-76. PMC: 6429939. DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r67. View

13.

Christensen K, Thinggaard M, Oksuzyan A, Steenstrup T, Andersen-Ranberg K, Jeune B . Physical and cognitive functioning of people older than 90 years: a comparison of two Danish cohorts born 10 years apart. Lancet. 2013; 382(9903):1507-13. PMC: 3818336. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)60777-1. View

14.

Sebastiani P, Perls T . The genetics of extreme longevity: lessons from the new England centenarian study. Front Genet. 2012; 3:277. PMC: 3510428. DOI: 10.3389/fgene.2012.00277. View

15.

Goldman D, Zheng Y, Girosi F, Michaud P, Olshansky S, Cutler D . The benefits of risk factor prevention in Americans aged 51 years and older. Am J Public Health. 2009; 99(11):2096-101. PMC: 2759785. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.172627. View

16.

Crimmins E, Beltran-Sanchez H . Mortality and morbidity trends: is there compression of morbidity?. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2010; 66(1):75-86. PMC: 3001754. DOI: 10.1093/geronb/gbq088. View

17.

Kindig D, Cheng E . Even as mortality fell in most US counties, female mortality nonetheless rose in 42.8 percent of counties from 1992 to 2006. Health Aff (Millwood). 2013; 32(3):451-8. DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.2011.0892. View

18.

Kubo M, Kiyohara Y, Kato I, Tanizaki Y, Arima H, Tanaka K . Trends in the incidence, mortality, and survival rate of cardiovascular disease in a Japanese community: the Hisayama study. Stroke. 2003; 34(10):2349-54. DOI: 10.1161/01.STR.0000090348.52943.A2. View

19.

Martin G, Bergman A, Barzilai N . Genetic determinants of human health span and life span: progress and new opportunities. PLoS Genet. 2007; 3(7):e125. PMC: 1934400. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgen.0030125. View

20.

Kirkland J . Translating advances from the basic biology of aging into clinical application. Exp Gerontol. 2012; 48(1):1-5. PMC: 3543864. DOI: 10.1016/j.exger.2012.11.014. View