Could the New Body Shape Index Predict the New Onset of Diabetes Mellitus in the Chinese Population?

Background: Anthropometric measures could predict the new onset of diabetes mellitus (DM). Recently, a new anthropometric measure (a body shape index, ABSI) was developed, and ABSI could predict premature mortality, even better than WC and BMI. The main aims of the study were to assess the DM predictive power of ABSI based on the follow-up data over 15 years collected from a general Chinese population.

Methods And Findings: The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 711 individuals. Because 24 of them were diagnosed with DM in 1992, our analysis was eventually based on the usable data collected from the remaining 687 individuals (male: 58.1%). ABSI was defined as WC/(BMI(2/3)height(1/2)), expressing WC and height in m. After adjusting for confounders, increasing the population ABSI by one standard deviation would result in an increased HR of 41% (95%CI: 12%-77%), compared to 73% (95%CI: 37%-118%) for BMI and 96% (95%CI: 53%-150%) for WC. WC had the best discriminatory power for DM (AROC: 0.701, 95%CI: 0.641-0.760), followed by BMI (AROC: 0.668, 95%CI: 0.601-0.734) and ABSI (AROC: 0.647, 95%CI: 0.581-0.713).

Conclusions: ABSI could predict the new onset of DM in the Chinese population independently. Since the confidence intervals for the HR coefficients and AROCs overlapped, the predictive ability of ABSI for DM was not better than WC and BMI. The three measures had similar predictive abilities for DM. Further studies about ethnic specificities of ABSI are needed and warranted.