One-year Outcome After a First Clinically Possible Epileptic Seizure: Predictive Value of Clinical Classification and Early EEG

Objective: To assess the one-year outcome of patients referred to the emergency room for a first paroxysmal event of clinically certain or uncertain epileptic origin.

Methods: This prospective observational cohort study included 175 adult patients who were consecutively referred for a first paroxysmal event and excluding clinically certain syncope faints. Simple descriptive clinical criteria were used by emergency room physicians for epileptic assessment. Follow-up and final diagnosis were made by neurologists specialized in epilepsy. The risk of recurrence and epilepsy over time was described using Kaplan-Meier estimates. The effect of risk factors (including EEG results) was assessed using univariate log-rank tests and a Cox regression multivariate model. Negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV) at 1 year of significant factors were calculated.

Results: Clinical criteria were positive in 67 patients and negative in 108. At 1 year, the rate of recurrence was respectively 8% in the negative clinical criteria group (NCC) and 30% in the positive clinical criteria group (PCC) (RR=9.3; 95% CI=[1.22; 71.4]). The risk of subsequent epilepsy was respectively 16% in the NCC group and 57% in PCC group (RR=5.6; 95% CI=[2.0; 15.6]). Positive predictive value (PPV) of clinical criteria was 28.8% for recurrence and 57.6% for definite epilepsy. Negative predictive value (NPV) of clinical criteria was 93.2% for recurrence and 83.5% for definite epilepsy. The presence of significant abnormalities on early EEG (paroxysms or focal abnormalities) supported an epileptic origin in 17% of clinically uncertain seizures. It was associated with a higher risk of subsequent epilepsy (RR=2.50; 95% CI [1.37; 4.41]; P=0.007), but did not significantly improve the PPV of clinical criteria alone.

Conclusion: These results may help provide a prognosis at 1 year after a first paroxysmal event of certain or uncertain epileptic origin. Future studies focusing on the outcome after a first epileptic seizure should take into consideration the degree of certainty of the clinical diagnosis and integrate the group of patients with uncertain epileptic seizure.