Bayesian Inference Analysis of the Uncertainty Linked to the Evaluation of Potential Flood Damage in Urban Areas

Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth-damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth-damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth-damage curves. A Bayesian inference analysis was proposed along with a probabilistic approach for the parameters estimating. The analysis demonstrated that the Bayesian approach is very effective considering that the available databases are usually short.