Evolving Forecasting Classifications and Applications in Health Forecasting

Overview

Journal Int J Gen Med

Publisher Dove Medical Press

Specialty General Medicine

Date 2012 May 23

PMID 22615533

Citations 15

Authors

Ireneous N Soyiri

Daniel D Reidpath

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.

Citing Articles

Investigating Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Risk of Asthma Exacerbations: A Systematic Review.

Darsha Jayamini W, Mirza F, Asif Naeem M, Chan A J Med Syst. 2024; 48(1):49.

PMID: 38739297 PMC: 11090925. DOI: 10.1007/s10916-024-02061-3.

Evaluating the Increased Burden of Cardiorespiratory Illness Visits to Adult Emergency Departments During Flu and Bronchiolitis Outbreaks in the Pediatric Population: Retrospective Multicentric Time Series Analysis.

Morel B, Bouleux G, Viallon A, Maignan M, Provoost L, Bernadac J JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2022; 8(3):e25532.

PMID: 35266876 PMC: 8949698. DOI: 10.2196/25532.

Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.

Platt J, Jager J, Patrick M, Kloska D, Schulenberg J, Rutherford C Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2021; 45(10):2069-2079.

PMID: 34741556 PMC: 9066164. DOI: 10.1111/acer.14690.

Search trends and prediction of human brucellosis using Baidu index data from 2011 to 2018 in China.

Zhao C, Yang Y, Wu S, Wu W, Xue H, An K Sci Rep. 2020; 10(1):5896.

PMID: 32246053 PMC: 7125199. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-62517-7.

Peak Outpatient and Emergency Department Visit Forecasting for Patients With Chronic Respiratory Diseases Using Machine Learning Methods: Retrospective Cohort Study.

Peng J, Chen C, Zhou M, Xie X, Zhou Y, Luo C JMIR Med Inform. 2020; 8(3):e13075.

PMID: 32224488 PMC: 7154928. DOI: 10.2196/13075.

References

Hu W, Tong S, Mengersen K, Connell D . Weather variability and the incidence of cryptosporidiosis: comparison of time series poisson regression and SARIMA models. Ann Epidemiol. 2007; 17(9):679-88. DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2007.03.020. View

Lu W, Wang W . Potential assessment of the "support vector machine" method in forecasting ambient air pollutant trends. Chemosphere. 2005; 59(5):693-701. DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2004.10.032. View

Schweigler L, Desmond J, McCarthy M, Bukowski K, Ionides E, Younger J . Forecasting models of emergency department crowding. Acad Emerg Med. 2009; 16(4):301-8. DOI: 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2009.00356.x. View

Hayrinen K, Saranto K, Nykanen P . Definition, structure, content, use and impacts of electronic health records: a review of the research literature. Int J Med Inform. 2007; 77(5):291-304. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2007.09.001. View

Hoot N, LeBlanc L, Jones I, Levin S, Zhou C, Gadd C . Forecasting emergency department crowding: a discrete event simulation. Ann Emerg Med. 2008; 52(2):116-25. PMC: 7252622. DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2007.12.011. View

Manton K, Soldo B, Vierck E . "Death and taxes": a contrary view. Popul Today. 1984; 12(11):2, 8-9. View

Pepe M, Longton G, Janes H . Estimation and Comparison of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves. Stata J. 2010; 9(1):1. PMC: 2774909. View

Reis B, Mandl K . Time series modeling for syndromic surveillance. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2003; 3:2. PMC: 149370. DOI: 10.1186/1472-6947-3-2. View

Stewart Williams J . Assessing the suitability of fractional polynomial methods in health services research: a perspective on the categorization epidemic. J Health Serv Res Policy. 2011; 16(3):147-52. DOI: 10.1258/jhsrp.2010.010063. View

10.

Holleman Jr D, Bowling R, Gathy C . Predicting daily visits to a walk-in clinic and emergency department using calendar and weather data. J Gen Intern Med. 1996; 11(4):237-9. DOI: 10.1007/BF02642481. View

11.

Champion R, Kinsman L, Lee G, Masman K, May E, Mills T . Forecasting emergency department presentations. Aust Health Rev. 2007; 31(1):83-90. DOI: 10.1071/ah070083. View

12.

Blaisdell C, Weiss S, Kimes D, Levine E, Myers M, Timmins S . Using seasonal variations in asthma hospitalizations in children to predict hospitalization frequency. J Asthma. 2002; 39(7):567-75. DOI: 10.1081/jas-120014921. View

13.

Rogge J . Population trends and the status of population policy in Africa. J Geog. 1982; 81(5):164-74. DOI: 10.1080/00221348208980723. View

14.

Boyle J, Jessup M, Crilly J, Green D, Lind J, Wallis M . Predicting emergency department admissions. Emerg Med J. 2011; 29(5):358-65. DOI: 10.1136/emj.2010.103531. View

15.

Soyiri I, Reidpath D, Sarran C . Asthma length of stay in hospitals in London 2001-2006: demographic, diagnostic and temporal factors. PLoS One. 2011; 6(11):e27184. PMC: 3206938. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0027184. View

16.

McKendry I . Evaluation of artificial neural networks for fine particulate pollution (PM10 and PM2.5) forecasting. J Air Waste Manag Assoc. 2002; 52(9):1096-101. DOI: 10.1080/10473289.2002.10470836. View

17.

Wargon M, Casalino E, Guidet B . From model to forecasting: a multicenter study in emergency departments. Acad Emerg Med. 2010; 17(9):970-8. DOI: 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2010.00847.x. View

18.

Lindsey J, Jones B . Choosing among generalized linear models applied to medical data. Stat Med. 1998; 17(1):59-68. DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19980115)17:1<59::aid-sim733>3.0.co;2-7. View

19.

Jones S, Thomas A, Evans R, Welch S, Haug P, Snow G . Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department. Acad Emerg Med. 2008; 15(2):159-70. DOI: 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2007.00032.x. View

20.

Hoot N, Zhou C, Jones I, Aronsky D . Measuring and forecasting emergency department crowding in real time. Ann Emerg Med. 2007; 49(6):747-55. PMC: 7340359. DOI: 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2007.01.017. View