Development of a Prognostic Model for Six-month Mortality in Older Adults with Declining Health

Overview

Journal J Pain Symptom Manage

Publisher Elsevier

Specialties Critical Care
Pharmacology
Psychiatry

Date 2011 Nov 11

PMID 22071167

Citations 20

Authors

Paul K J Han

Minjung Lee

Bryce B Reeve

Angela B Mariotto

Zhuoqiao Wang

Ron D Hays

K Robin Yabroff

Marie Topor

Eric J Feuer

Affiliations

Soon will be listed here.

Abstract

Context: Estimation of six-month prognosis is essential in hospice referral decisions, but accurate, evidence-based tools to assist in this task are lacking.

Objectives: To develop a new prognostic model, the Patient-Reported Outcome Mortality Prediction Tool (PROMPT), for six-month mortality in community-dwelling elderly patients.

Methods: We used data from the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey linked to vital status information. Respondents were 65 years old or older, with self-reported declining health over the past year (n=21,870), identified from four Medicare Health Outcomes Survey cohorts (1998-2000, 1999-2001, 2000-2002, and 2001-2003). A logistic regression model was derived to predict six-month mortality, using sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL), ascertained by measures of activities of daily living and the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Health Survey; k-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate model performance, which was compared with existing prognostic tools.

Results: The PROMPT incorporated 11 variables, including four HRQOL domains: general health perceptions, activities of daily living, social functioning, and energy/fatigue. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.75) and calibration. Overall diagnostic accuracy was superior to existing tools. At cut points of 10%-70%, estimated six-month mortality risk sensitivity and specificity ranged from 0.8% to 83.4% and 51.1% to 99.9%, respectively, and positive likelihood ratios at all mortality risk cut points ≥40% exceeded 5.0. Corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 23.1%-64.1% and 85.3%-94.5%. Over 50% of patients with estimated six-month mortality risk ≥30% died within 12 months.

Conclusion: The PROMPT, a new prognostic model incorporating HRQOL, demonstrates promising performance and potential value for hospice referral decisions. More work is needed to evaluate the model.

Citing Articles

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